Understanding Putin's Approach to Ukraine: A Strategic Perspective

Why is Putin so erratic and inconsistent in his approach to Ukraine? The complexity of this issue lies in several intertwined factors, primarily driven by economic and political motivations. Understanding these elements can help us comprehend Putin's strategic decisions and their implications for the region's future.

Background and Context

The primary theory revolves around Putin's goal of integrating Ukraine into a friendly setup without it joining NATO or the European Union (EU), particularly without the Western Ukrainian regions. This is rooted in historical and economic interdependencies. Approximately 90% of the so-called 'Russian oligarchs' are not Russian nationals but have significant stakes in Ukraine. Their primary concern is personal financial gain rather than the well-being of Russia or Ukraine as a whole.

Political and Economic Interests

These oligarchs, who benefited from the Yeltsin era, have deep financial and personal ties in the West. Putin inherited this system and, instead of eliminating them, decided to integrate their interests into the Russian economy. He gradually increased taxes and redirected their energy and resources into sectors like agriculture and manufacturing. This strategic move aimed to reduce their dependence on oil exports and diversify Russia's economy.

One of Putin's key decisions was the reunion of Crimea, which was a personal move that garnered mixed reactions. The oligarchs, as well as Western sanctions, posed significant challenges. However, by cleverly utilizing Western sanctions and the drop in oil prices, Putin managed to rebuild the Russian economy. He devalued the ruble and banned food imports, which had the dual benefit of supporting the domestic agriculture industry and making it more competitive on the global market.

Strategic Maneuvering and Long-term Goals

Despite his actions that often appear erratic, Putin is methodically working towards several long-term goals. He understands that further Western sanctions could be detrimental, hence he is currently adopting a more cautious and less provocative stance. Putin likely hopes that domestic dissatisfaction with the current pro-Western regime in Ukraine will increase over time. Eventually, this could lead to a shift in Ukrainian politics towards more pragmatic and pro-Russian leaders.

The current junta in Ukraine, installed and supported by the West, has been focusing on harming Russia and its ethnic Russian population within Ukraine. Their main goal is to create a state that opposes Russia, which has not been popular among the Ukrainian population. As a result, sanctions and unrest caused by recent political changes are likely to lead to a more pragmatic approach in Ukrainian politics.

Conclusion and Future Outlook

Russia and Ukraine share a complex web of historical, cultural, and economic ties. Recognizing these interdependencies is crucial in understanding Putin's approach. Given the current economic conditions in Ukraine, which are deteriorating, and the support for more pragmatic leaders among the populace, the conditions could facilitate a shift in Ukraine's political stance.

Waiting for time to bring changes, allowing the current situation to unfold, may be a strategic approach that Putin is adopting, rather than continuing with military intervention. The economic and social situation in Ukraine may naturally evolve to a position that is more aligned with Russia's interests.