The Decline of the Middle Class: Implications and Future Scenarios

The middle class, a cornerstone of American society, has seen a significant decline in its share of national income. Historically, middle-class families held 50% of the total income, but now that figure has dropped to 42%. This shift has disproportionately affected those at the lower end of the income spectrum, many of whom are earning less than two-thirds of the median income. What will happen as the middle class disappears, and will it lead to civil unrest or even revolution?

Impact and Distribution of Wealth

The decline in the middle class is not a novel phenomenon. Nixon in the 1970s, Reagan in the 1980s, and then Trump in the 2010s have each played a role in redistributing wealth away from the middle class. The high-income strata have seen significant gains, leaving those with lower income levels struggling. This disparity has increased due to policy decisions and economic shifts over the past few decades.

Civil Unrest and Social Revolution

The erosion of the middle class has profound implications for social stability. As the middle class diminishes, the potential for civil unrest grows. Historically, revolutions have tended to arise when individuals feel that their livelihoods and opportunities are under threat. With many people at the bottom of the economic ladder facing dire circumstances, the likelihood of civil unrest becomes significant.

During the period leading up to such upheavals, the rich are not safe. There have been examples throughout history and even now of home invasions, kidnapping, and even targeted killings of the wealthy. This trend reflects the desperation and frustration felt by those who see little hope for improvement in their lives.

The Resilience of the Middle Class

Despite the challenges, the middle class in the USA is not entirely eradicated. While they may no longer work in factories, middle-class individuals now hold management, sales, administration, and service sector jobs. The reasons for this shift are complex, but largely stem from changing societal preferences and evolving economic realities. Politicians who promise to bring back factory jobs are often misled or deceptive, as most Americans have moved on to better opportunities.

The significance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a key indicator of the stock market, highlights this shift. Few of the companies constituting this index are industrial in nature, further illustrating the modern economic landscape. This underscores that the middle class's role has evolved beyond traditional manufacturing sectors.

Consequences and Possible Outcomes

With the majority of the population facing day-to-day poverty, higher education is likely to be reserved for the wealthy and intellectually gifted. History has shown that extreme economic inequality often leads to social upheaval. In such scenarios, the middle class, who stand to lose the most, become unwilling revolutionaries driven by desperation and a lack of hope for improvement.

Historical precedents such as the French Revolution in 1789 and the Russian Revolution in 1917 paint a picture of what could occur. In France, the revolution resulted from widespread poverty and unrest among the populace. Similarly, in Russia, the revolution was catalyzed by economic hardship and political oppression.

The middle class and aspiring middle class—often referred to as the bourgeoisie in socialist rhetoric—have the most to lose if social upheaval, revolution, or civil war were to occur. Conversely, desperate and starving individuals have nothing to lose, and their actions could drive the course of events.

As the disparity between the wealthy and the poor widens, and as people's desperation intensifies, revolution may become the only possible outcome. Understanding and addressing these issues is critical to maintaining social stability and ensuring a fair and prosperous society for all.